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Bill Hubard analysis 27 November '17

Bill Hubard analysis 27 November '17

Bill Hubard analysis 27 November '17

Monday, November 27, 2017 - 12:49
Bill Hubard analysis 27 November '17

Week ahead in the markets as Bitcoin hits new highs

What’s happening this week?

*      Month end beckons and typically thinner 'holiday'/year-end trading conditions will inevitably prevail.

*      Statistically the week ahead has much to digest from the US, although due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and the fact that the first Friday of the month is 1 December, the US Labour data will NOT be published until 8 December. Topping the US schedule will be Personal Income/PCE, Consumer Confidence, revised Q3 GDP, Auto Sales and various Home Sales and Prices measure.

*      Elsewhere Eurozone CPI will garner plenty of attention along with the usual month end barrage of reports from Japan, Q3 GDP from Canada, India and Brazil, as well as Manufacturing PMIs from around the world.

*     The 'Politics uber Alles' theme of 2017 will remain the elephant in the room, with the US, UK, Ireland and Germany along with the ever-complex world of the Middle East all vying for attention.

*     Central Bank speakers are plentiful, with pride of place going to Yellen's testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee; Dudley will speak 3 times during the week, and the Fed also publishes is Beige Book.

*       Elsewhere the Bank of Korea is expected to initiate lift-off on rates with a 25 bps hike to 1.50%, while rates are expected to be UNCH in Angola, Ghana, Israel and Kazakhstan. The OECD also publishes its semi-annual Global Economic Outlook.

*      OPEC and Non-OPEC meet on Thursday with a 9-month extension to the current production cap agreement expected, although Russia does appear to be angling for some contingencies, with chatter suggesting that the cuts are linked to the supply-demand balance on the global oil market, or the level of oil inventories, or making a clear reference to the fact that the deal could be reviewed again early next year.

*     Government bond supply comes via way of the usual end of month US 2-, 5- & 7-year and Italian 5- & 10-year sales. Bond futures contracts will roll over from Dec to March in the US and UK.

*     Earnings reports are sparse, with Canada's banks (RBC, Scotiabank and T-D) topping the schedule; Russian energy giants Gazprom & Lukoil also feature along with Barnes & Noble, Britvic, Immo-finanz and Kroger.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto is booming again

*     Bitcoin has surged to yet another new record high on Monday, breaking a record set during the Thanksgiving weekend stateside. The crypto currency jumped to an all-time high of $9,755.80, hours after cracking the $9,400 level on Sunday. It later pared some gains to trade at $9,680 at the time of writing, rising some 17,68%!!!

*     "The move appears to be retail driven," said Brian Kelly, a CNBC-TV contributor and CEO of BKCM, which runs a digital assets strategy. The largest Bitcoin exchange in the US, Coinbase, added about 100,000 accounts between Wednesday and Friday — just around Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday — to a total of 13.1m. That's according to public data available on Coinbase's website and historical re-cords compiled by Alistair Milne, co-founder and chief investment officer of Altana Digital Currency Fund. Coinbase had about 4.9m users last November, Milne's data showed.

*     The surge in interest also comes on the back of CME's announcement that it WILL list Bitcoin futures in the second week of December. The launch of a derivatives product for the digital currency will mark another step in establishing Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. Still, with the digital currency having risen by some 870% YTD, plenty have taken to pointing out the potential pitfalls of what they see as a price bubble.

This does not constitute investment advice. Please remember that CFD trading is risky so trade wisely.

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